Urban Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models for Climate-Resilient Housing: Scaling Diffusion Transformers for Disaster Risk Prediction

Gustav Olaf Yunus Laitinen-Fredriksson Imanov, Derya Umut Kulali, Taner Yilmaz

Urban Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models for Climate-Resilient Housing: Scaling Diffusion Transformers for Disaster Risk Prediction: 1 upvotes on Hugging Face Daily Papers, #39 of 43 papers on 2026-02-09. Day-by-day upvote history.

Climate hazards increasingly disrupt urban transportation and emergency-response operations by damaging housing stock, degrading infrastructure, and reducing network accessibility. This paper presents Skjold-DiT, a diffusion-transformer framework that integrates heterogeneous spatio-temporal urban data to forecast building-level climate-risk indicators while explicitly incorporating transportation-network structure and accessibility signals relevant to intelligent vehicles (e.g., emergency reachability and evacuation-route constraints). Concretely, Skjold-DiT enables hazard-conditioned routing constraints by producing calibrated, uncertainty-aware accessibility layers (reachability, travel-time inflation, and route redundancy) that can be consumed by intelligent-vehicle routing and emergency dispatch systems. Skjold-DiT combines: (1) Fjell-Prompt, a prompt-based conditioning interface designed to support cross-city transfer; (2) Norrland-Fusion, a cross-modal attention mechanism unifying hazard maps/imagery, building attributes, demographics, and transportation infrastructure into a shared latent representation; and (3) Valkyrie-Forecast, a counterfactual simulator for generating probabilistic risk trajectories under intervention prompts. We introduce the Baltic-Caspian Urban Resilience (BCUR) dataset with 847,392 building-level observations across six cities, including multi-hazard annotations (e.g., flood and heat indicators) and transportation accessibility features. Experiments evaluate prediction quality, cross-city generalization, calibration, and downstream transportation-relevant outcomes, including reachability and hazard-conditioned travel times under counterfactual interventions.

Paper page on Hugging Face · arXiv

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