ProbabilityBench: Model Evaluation and Calibration with Exact Ground-Truth Uncertainty

Yuyang Dai, Yuting Tang, Futoshi Futami, Takashi Ishida

ProbabilityBench: Model Evaluation and Calibration with Exact Ground-Truth Uncertainty: 13 upvotes on Hugging Face Daily Papers, #47 of 89 papers on 2026-10-15. Day-by-day upvote history.

Evaluating model uncertainty on real-world data is challenging because each instance provides only a single observed label, leaving true conditional class probabilities unknown. To address this, we introduce ProbabilityBench, a benchmark that provides exact, instance-level class probabilities across three simulated text-based domains: peer review, covert information transfer, and credit risk. By explicitly defining the full data-generating process for each environment, we analytically compute both exact class probabilities and Bayes error. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical guarantee that rendering these cases into natural-language memos strictly preserves their underlying generative probabilities. This exactness enables direct measurement of reported probability quality via KL divergence. Across 16 evaluated models, most models on the observed cost-quality Pareto frontiers are decision models, including Jev and Perplexity Decider. Finally, ProbabilityBench serves as a meta-evaluation framework, leveraging known ground-truth values to benchmark the accuracy of standard calibration metrics and Bayes-error estimators themselves.

Paper page on Hugging Face · arXiv

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